Frank Assessment Of My Chances

This may be about as frank as this blog gets. I'm going to share my honest assessment of how likely I think I am to get into the schools I've applied to. This is the kind of stuff that's banging around my head lately, and I would really like to get it out. Thank you in advance for bearing with me. :)

Here's is my appraisal of how my applications look in general:

• What I have going for me: Untouchable performance at an amazing job most 50yos in my industry would love to have. High 90s GMAT verbal score, high 90s GMAT overall. Amazing college extracurriculars. Really well-written, well-conceived essays. One outstanding recommendation from someone very senior at my company.
  
• Neither good nor bad: My immediate supervisor's recommendation isn't very well done, even though it says good things. My extracurriculars since college are ok, I think, but I haven't been elected mayor or anything. I have an average (for these schools) GPA in the Ivy League.
• What I have going against me: Low 70s GMAT quant score. Humanities major.
  

Here's what I think about my chances at each school:

• Berkeley: This is the hardest one for me to estimate. I think that my career plans make me a really good fit for Berkeley. But I'm not entirely clear on how selective they are. If I had to guess, I would put my chances somewhere around 20%, but that's probably the wildest of all these guesses.
  
• Chicago: I get the feeling that Chicago cares more about GPAs and quant skills than other schools, and that might tank me. But I do think my PPT and essays were good. I really like Chicago and I hope that shows. Plus, they have a higher admission rate at 25% than schools like Harvard and Stanford. I give myself a 30% chance.
  
• Dartmouth: I had a great interview here, and I think I'm a good fit for the school. However, a friend of mine was told that her 70-something percentile GMAT quant score got her waitlisted. She hadn't taken any quant courses, though, while I've done so and done well in them. I'm guessing my chances are 40%.
  
• Darden and Duke. I'm think my chances are similar for Darden and Duke -- I'd guess about 50% or more. I'm much more into Darden, though. I really like the case method and how hard the students work.
  
• Harvard: Long shot. The scores and GPAs I see in online forums for Harvard admits depress me. And someone from my firm who had a very similar role to mine didn't even get an interview last year. However, this person also admits to having done a "shitty" job on the essays. I give myself a 20% chance of admission.
  
• Kellogg: I think I'm a good fit here. My essays do a good job of making the case, but I'm not sure my interviewer will back that up. I feel ok about my chances here. I think it could go either way, so let's say a 40% chance of admission.
  
• Stanford: Very long shot. The GMATs and GPAs for Stanford admits that I see on mbabuzz.com and Admissions411 make me feel pretty pessimistic about my chances. And I'm special in my industry, but I haven't founded a nonprofit that is close to curing cancer, which seems like the type of thing most Stanford students have done. I'm going to give myself a 15% chance of admission.
  

I guess we'll never know how right or wrong I am, but this is how I'm feeling right now. It's hard to stay optimistic, especially as Harvard interviews start to go out. (Today was the first day, and I didn't hear anything.) I'm trying hard, though, let me tell you.

Wish me luck!